MVFC

[JBB2]

Week 3

• SDSU: Beating Montana State carries a lot of weight

• NDSU: Bison continue to roll like Kramer in 5th grade karate class. Great crowd

• UND: last minute loss to Montana showed us a good team still putting it together but cracks are showing. They are learning to choke not win.

• SIU: solid 37-10 win for the Salukis shutting out UTM in the 1st & 4th qtrs

• Youngstown State: looking respectable scored in every qtr losing to Mich State 41-24

• USD: Losing Pierre for the season hurts but the Yotes start the turn around 24-17 in a solid OT win over UNC.

• ISU-R: Dang near MAC ready 42-30 losing the 2 & 4th Qtrs to EIU 14-10 and 14-20

• UNI: EWU comes up short scoring 14 in the 4th qtr in a losing effort 17-14

• Sycamores: give up 73 to Indiana in 73-0 laugher

• Murray State: still in the hunt, playoff hopes still alive Murray State won the 4th quarter 14-7 but lost to Georgia State. 37-21

IMG_1818-compressed.jpeg (148.8 KiB) Viewed 97435 times

[JBB2]

IMG_1817-compressed.jpeg (100.82 KiB) Viewed 97434 times

IMG_1816-compressed.jpeg (97.73 KiB) Viewed 97434 times

[JBB2]

Sagarin.

Highlight strength of schedule NDSU vs SDSU. Both are successful.

IMG_1839-compressed.jpeg (73.59 KiB) Viewed 97430 times

[JBB2]

Based on the following SDSU has clung to my top spot in the MVFC because

• Sagarin Winner depends on location. 3 pts apart home field advantage of 5

• Uncertainty around rebuilding efforts for both teams resulted in statistical extrapolations indicating a close SDSU win

• SDSUs win over Montana State and the weak Bison schedule

Using 2025 cumulative statistics I ran the mythical match-up below. 13 pt spread was a surprise but 30-17 seems doeable. Again, the distortion may be SOS, the Bison have had a very easy time of it, In the mean time take your pick but the evidence against SDSU is starting to add up.

IMG_1866-compressed.jpeg (140.75 KiB) Viewed 97371 times

[kevin]

SDSU would lose by 14 if we played them this weekend. Our defense is too good.

That might change if they figure a few things out.

[JBB2]

GAMES OCTOBER 25, 2025

IMG_2307.jpeg (122.89 KiB) Viewed 12 times

NDSU @ SDSU (Border Marker)

• NDSU -7
  OU 51
  Mythical Score NDSU 29-22

Covered elsewhere this is a big game for the Herd and a top 50 national match-up. Might as well be traveling to Iowa State or Nebraska.

STATE (Murray) @ STATE (Youngstown)

• YSU -12
  OU 60
  Mythical Score YSU 36-24

This projection gives Murray full credit for its accomplishments. So far only NDSU has been able to slow them down. The rest let them get their 15-20 points. They might be getting tired. There’s no sign of it in the statistics, it’s just a guess, but this one might get away from the Sycamores too.

Illinois State @ USD

• USD -1.5
  OU 57
  Mythical Score ISU 29-28

Best, not biggest, game of the week. Might be too close to call. Both of these teams will want the win. It’s a shoot-out on the offensive side of the ball and will go over if it’s that kind of game. The USD defense is just good enough to give them the edge. If it turns into a defensive battle they may even cover the spread.

UNI @ SIU

• SIU -10
  OU 50
  Mythical Score SIU 30-20

Indiana State @ UND

• UND -21
  OU 61
  Mythical Score UND 41-20

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks tried to pour it on. They want a good impression and home field, at least until the NDSU playoff round. 41-18 is as bad as we see it getting but UND is out to prove something. They have the biggest football game in school history looming just on the horizon. This isn’t bubba ball they say.