Bobcats vs. Bison*
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JBB2
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Re: Bobcats vs. Bison*
You can say that again bro! We got 41% this week the ML got 42%! Shouldn’t have goofed with the O/U. It’s always a problem.
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Last edited by JBB2 on Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
The NCC is dead. Long live The NCC.
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JBB2
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Re: Bobcats vs. Bison*
https://youtu.be/hAZzvJattzw?si=7yVwq6xvrxNJv4WSNORTH DAKOTA STATE vs MONTANA STATE FCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME HIGHLIGHTS
The NCC is dead. Long live The NCC.
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JBB2
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- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:17 am
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Re: Bobcats vs. Bison*
Concept of the GAM
As bisonoline kindly suggested a less detailed post would be welcome from the leather helmet gang and others with time considerations. Of course the option exists to just ignore.
X VERSION:
When challenging Vegas there’s a difference between guessing and having a foundational premise.
FULL TEXT:
The GAM is a series of linear equations predicting most likely outcomes based on a teams statistical profile.
The equations use average and mean inputs. It’s here inputs can be changed allowing subjective judgement. I used to do a lot of input adjustments but not so much any more. I just let it run. In closely predicted big games adjustments can be helpful.
The GAM paints a pretty good picture of reality. I often accept it even if it seems wrong. When used to guide your hand against the Vegas odds makers - spread, O/U and ML - and not predict actual score it has proven to be very profitable.
It’s best to use your judgement when comparing GAM results with the odds-makers. They are crowd sourcing. the initial odds are coming from algorithms that must be similar to the GAM. Sometimes they are wrong. Sometimes the crowd is wrong. In the end wagering against Vegas is wagering on crowd behavior. The GAM tells you when and where to play.
The GAM is never wrong. Reality just doesn’t always unfold like it should or could. That’s why you should never gamble.
As bisonoline kindly suggested a less detailed post would be welcome from the leather helmet gang and others with time considerations. Of course the option exists to just ignore.
X VERSION:
When challenging Vegas there’s a difference between guessing and having a foundational premise.
FULL TEXT:
The GAM is a series of linear equations predicting most likely outcomes based on a teams statistical profile.
The equations use average and mean inputs. It’s here inputs can be changed allowing subjective judgement. I used to do a lot of input adjustments but not so much any more. I just let it run. In closely predicted big games adjustments can be helpful.
The GAM paints a pretty good picture of reality. I often accept it even if it seems wrong. When used to guide your hand against the Vegas odds makers - spread, O/U and ML - and not predict actual score it has proven to be very profitable.
It’s best to use your judgement when comparing GAM results with the odds-makers. They are crowd sourcing. the initial odds are coming from algorithms that must be similar to the GAM. Sometimes they are wrong. Sometimes the crowd is wrong. In the end wagering against Vegas is wagering on crowd behavior. The GAM tells you when and where to play.
The GAM is never wrong. Reality just doesn’t always unfold like it should or could. That’s why you should never gamble.
The NCC is dead. Long live The NCC.